akota

what next

What happens next?  Is this a global financial armageddon? Or maybe just comeuppance for Wall Street fat cats? Is this a new depression, or just a less luxurious retirement for the upper chunk of America that owns stocks? We can watch the stock market see-saw, but that doesn't really tell us what is happening.  Here is a list of upcoming releases of economic indicators that will help identify what is actually going on.

• October 3: employment situation (for September 2008) (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• October 10: export/import totals (for August 2008) (Bureau of Economic Advisors)
• October 16: industrial production and capacity utilization (estimate through September 2008) (Federal Reserve)
• October 30: GDP (estimate through September 2008) (Bureau of Economic Adviros)

All of this is meant to help me figure out if Professor Mulligan is right and Wall Street really will drown alone. He says:

The weak correlation between asset prices and non-financial sector performance and the strong profitability of today’s non-financial capital are two good reasons to scoff at the idea that the non-financial sector will collapse because of the recent events on Wall Street, and even better reasons to scoff at the Bernanke-Paulson-Bush idea that a massive bailout of financial firms is the key to avoiding a non-financial collapse.

commercial paper

This is why financial sector people think the rest of the country is in for a ride:

That's overnight and 60-day interest rates for companies outside the financial sector that have less than perfect credit (but still aren't in the junk bond category).  Data from the Federal Reserve.

investment, rescue, bailout

A series of polls on the bailout plan; all are better than 3% margin of error and were conducted last week.  It is all in how you ask the question.

Pew asks, "As you may know, the government is potentially investing billions to try and keep financial institutions and markets secure.  Do you think this is the right thing or the wrong thing for the government to be doing?"

• Yes: 57%
• No: 30%

CBS News/NY Times asks: "Do you approve or disapprove of the federal government's plan to provide money to financial institutions to help them get out of their financial crisis?"

• Yes: 42%
• No: 46%

Rasmussen asks: "Do you favor or oppose the economic rescue plan now being negotiated by Congress and the Bush Administration?"

• Favor : 24%
• Oppose: 50%

P is 43,112,609

The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) has found a new largest prime number,  2^43112609 - 1.  That number has more than 10 million digits.  Mersenne primes, primes of the form 2^P

-1, have been entertaining mathematicians since described by a 17th century French friar, Marin Mersenne.

Or, as AP put it, "UCLA group discovers humongous prime number."

That is all.

charm them

I completely misread the debate.  I thought Senator McCain sounded tougher and more self-confident.  I thought voters would accept his repeated characterization of Senator Obama as unready and unwise.  I wanted Obama to hit back. I was wrong.  Instead, it looks like Obama's less bombastic approach won over voters.  The CNN poll of debate viewers shows that by huge margins Obama appeared more likeable and more intelligent. Obama also won more sincere and a stronger leader, but by smaller margins.

creative thinking

In public policy discussions you rarely get to hear the more creative ideas.  Professor Cowen has a creative plan to bailout the economy and spread the wealth:

The Fed/Treasury can identify those parts of the country with the most foreclosures.  They can buy or confiscate empty homes in those areas . . . .

[Y]ou could offer 20-year, no-resale residencies in the homes to some group that won't otherwise be buying an American home.  Alex suggests offering the homes to potential immigrants ("have I got a deal for you...") or how about giving away the homes to current low-asset recipients of Medicaid?  Dealing the homes away in the right manner could win back some money for the government or help out others in a very humane way.

Maybe half-baked, but a decent plan.  Here is a slightly more baked version from Professor Ely:

Just intervene in any mortgage default. Seize the property and continue making the mortgage payments. In the short run rent the property back to the homeowner.

You end up with government-owned housing. And we already have a tested regulatory framework for managing publicly held housing in the Federal Housing Administration.

isolation + evolution

These are from Socotra, a remote archipelago in the Indian Ocean. Evolution can do some awesome things. The blog Dark Roasted Blend has more details.

dracaena cinnabari, photo by Flickr user:jan_vandorpe

Adenium obesum var socotranum, photo by Flickr user:jan_vandorpe

I'm fixing to tase you.

Buckley v. Haddock, No. 07-10988 (11th Cir. Sept. 9, 2008)

Mr. Buckley was speeding late at night in a rural part of Florida in March of 2004.  He was financially destitute and homeless.  Getting pulled over by the police was the last straw.  He refused to sign the citation and the officer decided he had to arrest him. Mr. Buckley was handcuffed and started to walk to the police cruiser. He didn't make it.  He collapsed on the ground with legs crossed, sobbing.  He told the officer, "my life would be better if I was dead.” The officer tried to reason with him, to get him to stand up and walk to the police car. When this didn't work, the taser came out.  The officer tased Buckley three times.  Here we are four years later after Buckley sued the officer for using excessive force. This is the court's analysis of the situation:

An objectively reasonable police officer could rightly believe that force was []  necessary to secure the non-compliant Plaintiff in the patrol car and thereby complete the arrest.

I don't really see the logic of tasing a man who is sobbing hysterically. But two judges think it is objectively reasonable, or at least not a clearly established violation of the Constitution, so Buckley loses. See for yourself:

It isn't like this situation is a new phenomenon.  Before tasers it was billyclubs. YouTube, however, makes it a lot easier to have a frank discussion about what the police are doing and what the rules should be.  Bravo to all of the police departments that record these interactions. 

jail the blasphemers

Ramesh Ponnuru writes at The Corner (responding to this NY Times article):

Refusing to give legal protections to unborn children is not a different way of applying Church teachings. It's a disagreement with them.

I really wonder if he's thought this one through.  The Church's teachings forbid a lot of things.  For example, "blasphemy is contrary to the respect due God and his holy name. It is in itself a grave sin."  Nonetheless, I suspect Ponnuru, and many others who agree with the Church, do not want laws against blasphemy.  It is entirely possible to believe that something is morally wrong and not the government's business.  Catholic Democrats are allowed to simultaneously believe that abortion is morally wrong and that it is a private matter.

If Ponnuru really wants to live up to his words, I look forward to his support for criminalizing not only blasphemy, but also the new social sins announced earlier this year by Archbishop Girotti:

• Polluting the environment
• Contributing to widening divide between rich and poor
• Excessive wealth
• Creating poverty

I suspect Ponnuru's principles don't extend much beyond abortion.

Who Is Tucker Bounds?

Tucker Bounds has become face for the McCain campaign with exchanges like this:

He is deputy communications director for the campaign. His background:

• 2002,  graduates from University of Oregon
• 2002-2003, aide to Representative Walden of Oregon
• 2003-2005(?), aide to Senator Smith of Oregon
• 2004, communications director for Bush-Cheney 04 in Oregon
• 2007, spokesman for Oregon Republican Party (?)
• 2007, works for McCain
• 2007-2008, VP for Public Affairs for the American Insurance Association
• 2008, rejoins McCain campaign